Baccarat Online Strategies

The number of bets in Baccarat is fairly limited, and the player does not take any independent decisions, so there're essentially no 'guaranteed win' strategies for this game. However, it's very hard to make a mistake in Baccarat (unless you bid on a draw), and the strategy of playing Baccarat depends, more so than in other games, entirely on luck. However, John Milton Hayes, Roosevelt’s Secretary of State, once said: 'Real luck is not an ability to get the best cards on the table. The luckiest person is the man who knows when to stop and leave the card table.'

Throp’s strategy and probabilities in Baccarat

In early 60’s Edward Throp, an American professor of mathematics and legendary Blackjack player, published several articles on game theory and developed his own strategy for Baccarat, which allowed the player to stay profitable. Thorp was the person who proved mathematically that you could stay profitable playing Blackjack if you use card counting and then discovered a custom strategy for Baccarat. He shared his ideas with others by publishing an article on it in US magazine Life in 1964, and after that LA casinos closed the loophole.

While Edward Thorp strategy can't be used today, it's still possible to learn a lot from studying his work. His method of analysis of probabilities for Baccarat is still up-to-date as he calculated the odds of all potential outcomes for the game.

There're no scientifically proven strategies that can guarantee a certain win in Baccarat, but there're some ideas that need to be taken into account while playing. Professionals recommend bidding less on draws, because a draw gives maximum edge to the casino, not the player:

• If you bid on dealer, the casino’s edge equals to 1.06%;
• Bidding on player winning gives casino the edge of 1.24%;
• Bidding on draw gives casino the edge of 7-14%;

It's essential to take probabilities into account, while choosing a strategy for Baccarat (and these depend on the number of decks used):

• If six decks are used, the probability of a dealer winning is 0.458653, while the probability of a player winning is 0.446279, and the probability of a draw is only 0.095069 (and this is why the payout for betting on draw is so high: it takes into account the lowest probability of this happening);
• If eight decks are used, the probability of a dealer winning is 0.458597, the player gets 0.446247, a draw – 0.095156

It's also necessary to remember that depending on commission and number of cards, the value of the house edge (advantage that the house has over any player) could vary, as you can see in the table below.

Thus, if we take all probabilities and the casino’s edge into account, the basic principles of playing Baccarat can be defined with these statements:

• The odds are better if you bet on the dealer, rather than the player, and even more so than if you bet on a draw;
• Baccarat has better odds of winning, when six, instead of eight, decks are used;
• It's necessary to take the payout value on draw and commissions when deciding on the size of bet in every casino;
• Never bet on a draw – probabilities of winning are nearly non-existant;
• The best way to play Baccarat is to use six decks and commission of no more than 4%.