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Blackjack is one of the most popular games online and in traditional casinos, and there are a lot of possible strategies that increase the player’s odds of success. In reality, though, the number of really effective strategies is limited, and the majority of those are based on the card counting system that was created in the seventies.
Basic Blackjack strategy: card counting
One of the first mathematically proven strategies is card counting, which was created in 1962 by American mathematician Edward Thorp. Thorp described several profitable strategies for playing Blackjack in his book 'Beat the dealer.' The majority of these strategies are not workable today as casinos keep working on ways to counter these strategies. However, card counting, even though old, is still one of the main basic principles of an effective Blackjack strategy.
The essence of this strategy is very simple: Thorp has proven mathematically that by counting the cards that have been played, it's possible to generate stable wins. Throp suggested that a player must constantly monitor which cards have already been played, and which are still in the deck. The more elder cards (starting from 10 and ending with an ace) are left in the deck, the higher the player’s chances of winning during dealing or even assembling the main winning combination, Blackjack. The strategy is only valid until the deck is shuffled as card counting would have to be started all over from this moment.
While card counting it's possible to either use observation or to use a modified (but still a very simple) method, which assigns a specific value to each card dealt. The rules of this method are as follows:
- Elder cards (10-ace) have a value of -1
- Junior cards (2-6) have a value of +1
- 7,8,9 have a value of 0
The value of the card dealt is added to the total for the game. The total score could be either positive, or negative. For example, if the cards played were 2, 6, king, jack and ace, the overall balance would be equal to -1 (1+1-1-1-1=-1). The positive balance means that most of junior cards have been played, and that the deck has higher proportion of elder cards, and hence a chance of getting a winning combination is higher, so it's profitable to raise the stakes or even double those.
The table below summarises the changes in the odd of winning, depending on the positive or negative score and its value:
| −10 | −4.79% | +10 | +7.39% |
| −9 | −4.49% | +9 | +6.51% |
| −8 | −4.15% | +8 | +5.65% |
| −7 | −3.75% | +7 | +4.84% |
| −6 | −3.30% | +6 | +4.07% |
| −5 | −2.80% | +5 | +3.32% |
| −4 | −2.26% | +4 | +2.64% |
| −3 | −1.71% | +3 | +1.98% |
| −2 | −1.12% | +2 | +1.36% |
| −1 | −0.53% | +1 | +0.73% |
The table shows that the higher the positive total of card counting, the higher the odds of winning. So it's necessary to create your Blackjack strategy on the basis of card counting.
The double-up and split strategies
In addition to the mathematically proven strategies, there're some others, which are based on pure logic and waiting. Two of such strategies are double up (doubling the bets) and split (separation of your hand into two), which are both common in Blackjack.
Split determines if it is good to split your hand or stay with one hand during the course of a game. It's possible to split your hand if you have two of the same card coming during the first hand played (for example, two 10s). If you split, it's possible to assemble two hands instead of one and to win twice the amount if you are lucky.
It is good to split in some cases, and not so good at all in other cases:
- If you have two aces coming in, always split: the chances to assemble a winning combination (and even a Blackjack) in case of split are significantly higher;
- Always split if you have two 8s: in total these give 16 points, and it's quite a risky value, with high chances of either overshooting or underscoring. The chances of losing with two 8s are quite high, and in this case it's best to split.
- Never split if you have two 10s during the dealing. It is probably one of the silliest things that a Blackjack player can do. A total of 20 gives good odds of winning, almost a guaranteed chance. If you split and try to get two hands on starter 10s, you are not only destroying an excellent chance, but also risking ypur chances for assembling a winning combination on two hands.
- In general, it's possible to split both junior and elder cards, except for all cards that are worth 10 points, like 10s, jacks, queens and kings.
The double-up strategy allows you to double the wins if you are lucky. The double-up rule allows the player to double the bet (and the win), but get only a single card from the dealer. The double-up strategy is effective together with card counting, and only when after first hand your total is 10 or 11 points. As double-up strategy is very risky, never dismiss card counting and double up only if card-counting score is very high, so your chance of getting a 10 from the dealer is the highest.
